Resemblance to the Airplane Manufacturing Industry

The current situation in the rocket industry closely resembles the historical development of the airplane industry. Between 1916 and 1970, American companies, led by Boeing, controlled 90% of the global airplane manufacturing market. This dominance was the result of substantial investments in the development and commercialization of aircraft, which made it difficult, if not impossible, for other countries to compete or even enter the race with USA.

In response to this overwhelming dominance, France, West Germany, and the UK came together in 1970 to establish Airbus. Recognizing that individually they lacked the resources and market influence to rival the U.S. giants, these European nations pooled their technical expertise, financial resources, and political will to create a strong competitor.

Airbus's breakthrough came with the launch of the A300, the world's first twin-engine wide-body aircraft. This design set Airbus apart by offering airlines a more fuel-efficient and cost-effective option, compared to existing competitors. The success of the A300 not only validated the European collaboration, but also ensured, that the global aerospace industry was not entirely dependent on the USA. Now it is clear that without Airbus, the recent issues of Boeing, could have led to a much larger global crisis in the aviation sector.

The rocket industry today, is at a similar crossroads. The leaders of this emerging market are being established, and the decisions made now, will shape the industry for decades to come. If history is any guide, relying on a single dominant player in such a critical industry, could be risky. Just as the aerospace industry needed Airbus to provide balance and competition, the rocket industry may also need a similar collaborative effort to ensure the world isn’t reliant on one company, SpaceX.

The 50-year delay in Airplane industry is now comparable to a 15 - 20 years delay in the rocket industry, therefore it is expected that the second and potentially the last competitor to USA will have to arise between 2025 to 2035.