Space Agencies

For most of the space industry’s history, Government Space Agencies were the primary developers of rockets. It was only after the 2000s, when the privatization of space access became common. There are however 4 challenges, for any Rocket Developing Organization, public or private:

• Overcoming the High Cost of Entry - Only internationally funded agencies / companies can afford the development of the rocket technologies, unless funded by a significantly large nation.

• Attraction of Highly Skilled Engineers - Requires the development of the launch port to be carried out in a stable political climate and peace-oriented country with long term technological or scientific goals.

• Leadership - Correct Goals, Correct Operating Structure and Correct Incentives.

• Spaceport Location - A Geographical Location suitable for Rocket Development.

Looking at these 4 challenges, we can explain why European and Asian Space Agencies, as well as Private Rocket Companies are failing to compete effectively with SpaceX and China.

European Space Agency

The European Space Agency is one of the most powerful space organizations in the world, when looking at the amount of received funding, yet the weakest, when it comes to results delivered in the past 10 years.

The most visible failure is with Arianespace, contracted by the ESA, to develop the rockets for the European Union. Even though the details of the contract were not publicly disclosed, based on the actions of Arianespace, it appears to be a cost-plus contract. In such a contract format, Arianespace receives additional funding with each delay. The new Ariane 6 Rocket has been in development since 2015, and was planning its first flight around 2020. The launch has been delayed multiple times, resulting in the first flight occurring in the summer of 2024.

The planned initial investment by the European Union in this project was 2.85 billion euros, but the spending has been increased to more than 4 billion euros, following these delays. The Ariane 6 program will also need subsidies of 340 million euros per year, until 2031, to cover its operating expenses.

The cost is extraordinarily high, when we look at the fact, that the Ariane 6 rocket is just on par with the SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket, in terms of its total payload capacity, cost per kg to LEO, and number of expected launches per year. Yet the Falcon Heavy was developed with a total budget of only 500 million dollars and successfully launched back in 2018. Moreover, the Falcon Heavy is reusable, while Ariane 6 isn’t.

The European Space Agency has spent 700% more, than SpaceX for the same task. The EU politicians have been justifying the exceeded funding by stating that “it is worth to maintain the European Space Agency’s Rocket Program, so that Europe maintains its independence”.

However, this statement of “maintaining independence” is also losing its ground.

Under time pressure to launch critical National Security Satellites in 2023, the ESA ended up giving the launching job to American SpaceX. It is very likely, that slowly more and more European Countries will start losing interest in funding so largely overpriced space agency.

ISRO - JAXA - Roscosmos

Indian Space Research Organization, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Russian Space Agency

ISRO, JAXA and Roscosmos are all well-rounded from an Engineering and Financial point of view, however, they will also most likely retire their Rocket Launchers in the next 15 years as none of them have made plans to develop a reusable rocket in the upcoming 10 years. Their current Non-Reusable Rockets won’t be able to compete with the price of reusable rockets developed by the US, so they will most likely end up purchasing launches from the US.

CNSA

China National Space Administration

CNSA has shown an incredible pace of progress, however they are extremely limited in obtaining future launch contracts due to Geopolitical Tensions, as well as their little regard for safety in space. International Cooperation is very difficult with how they operate in space, showing little regard when shooting down their own satellite causing leftover debris, or dropping rocket stages on people’s homes spilling out toxic fuels, just to achieve their targets, without consideration to people’s lives.

Other Space Agencies

South America, Europe, Asia, Oceania

The smaller space agencies of individual European nations, the Korean Aerospace Research Institute, Australian Space Agency, and others, all suffer from the cost of entry and the challenge of attracting highly skilled engineers.

Most of these agencies focus solely on the development of satellites, with only a few venturing into the development of small rockets. None have demonstrated any significant ambition or action towards developing launch capabilities.

United States’ Commitment

It’s important to highlight the unparalleled commitment of the United States to advancing space technologies.

While still being the one of the most cost-effective space developers in history, The United States' investment in space technologies is four times greater, compared to Europe's, when measured as a proportion of their respective GDPs. This shows the strategic priority, that space exploration and technology hold in the United States.